It’s Friday night and we have a massive 10-game slate over on DraftKings. There are a ton of All-Stars in great spots, and the Rockets will be traveling to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans in a game that has a massive 229.0 total. With so many great players on the board, my plan is going to be trying to identify high-caliber players that might carry lower ownership in tournaments.
With this in mind, I have focused on identifying my two favorite plays, regardless of price, at each position that can give us an edge in tournaments on tonight’s slate.
Jrue Holiday (NOP): $6,900 vs. HOU
Holiday is in the midst of a seven-game stretch in which he has averaged 42.1 DK points per game. Tonight, he faces off against the Rockets in a game that is projected to have a staggering 229.0 total and three point spread. The Rockets are ranked 11th in defensive efficiency rating this season but they have given up the ninth most DK points to shooting guards. Holiday’s price tag makes him one of the top options on the board tonight based on form and game environment. He has 45-50 DK point upside in this matchup.
Kyle Lowry (TOR): $7,200 vs. UTA
Lowry is priced down for tonight’s game against the Jazz, but I actually think the matchup is a beatable one. On the season, the Jazz are ranked 21st in DK points allowed to PGs and Ricky Rubio has a -0.03 defensive real plus minus (DRPM), which puts him at 32nd out of 98 PGs in the NBA. Lowry busted against the Hawks on Wednesday night but prior to that game he put up 56.75 DK points in a tough road matchup against the Timberwolves. With the Jazz focusing in on DeMar DeRozan on the defensive end, Lowry should have more room to operate. He makes a lot of sense as a low-owned, contrarian play on tonight’s slate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): $10,400 vs. BKN
There are a ton of great mid-range options tonight, but if I am paying more than $10k for one player I prefer Antetokounmpo over the rest. The Greek Freak has averaged 59.3 DK points over the past two games and he gets a great home matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency rating this season. He will also spend a majority of his time at power forward, where the Nets are ranked 21st in DK point allowed. The superstars in the Pelicans and Rockets game are going to be chalky tonight, which means we can get probably get Antetokounmpo at a lower ownership than Chris Paul, James Harden, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Playing the Greek Freak will be a great opportunity to get ahead of the field.
Devin Booker (PHO): $8,400 vs. NYK
Booker has only averaged 33.0 DK points over the past two games, but he is in a great bounce-back spot against the Knicks tonight. The Knicks are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency rating this season and Tim Hardaway Jr. is an average defender, ranking 47th out of 86 SGs in DRPM. Booker’s insane 30.6% usage rate always makes him a viable option and he should put up 20+ shots in tonight’s game. The Knicks are also winding down a long west coast trip and they are playing on the second half of a back-to-back tonight. Booker is a great tournament option against a team that will be fatigued.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): $8,300 vs. PHI
Aldridge should be in line to shoulder the load on offense against the Sixers tonight. Over his past five games, Aldridge has averaged 44.1 DK points and 20.4 shot attempts per game. In a matchup against the Sixers earlier this month, he went for 48.3 DK points and had a usage rate of 31.9% in that game. The matchup is elite, as the Sixers have given up the eighth most DK points to power forwards this season. While Aldridge should see a bit of Joel Embiid‘s defense in this game, he will likely face off with Dario Saric (79th out of 96 PFs in DRPM) when he gets the ball on the elbow and in high pick and rolls. Aldridge has 50 DK point upside in this matchup.
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK): $8,300 at PHX
Porzingis has struggled over the past few games but a matchup against the Suns can always turn things around. The Suns are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency rating this season and they give up the third most DK points to power forwards. Porzingis is only nine days removed from a four-game stretch where he averaged 47.1 DK points against a string of tougher opponents (and the Nets). His price tag is reasonable, and his ownership should be down after a few poor games. Don’t overlook tonight’s matchup against Dragan Bender, who ranks 93rd out of 96 PFs in DRPM.