It’s Thursday night, and we have a four-game slate over on DraftKings tonight. Despite having only four games on tonight’s slate, we still have some elite players to target as the Warriors, Thunder, and Timberwolves are all on the schedule. A lack of value is going to make it tough to create a lineup with a lot of star power, so my plan tonight will be trying to find the best point per dollar plays in the mid-range. I will also be fading Russell Westbrook in a matchup against the Wizards, instead targeting Stephen Curry for a $1,000 discount.
I am going to identify my two favorite plays, regardless of price, at each position and then a value play that can help round out our lineups.
Stephen Curry (GSW): $10,400 vs. MIN
Since tonight’s Warriors-Timberwolves game is easily the best game on tonight’s four-game slate, I will be targeting the best player in it. Curry is priced up, but he has exceeded 50 DK points six times in the past 10 games. The Timberwolves are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency rating, and Jeff Teague has proven to be a beatable matchup this season, ranking 74th out of 98 PGs in DRPM. Curry has 60 DK point upside in tonight’s matchup and is an interesting pivot off of Russell Westbrook’s more expensive price tag.
Jamal Murray (DEN): $6,700 vs. NYK
Murray has been as volatile as they come this season, but he’s been riding a hot streak over the past two games, averaging 51.0 DK points on 66.7% from the field. While his shooting is bound to regress, his price has not caught up to his recent form, and tonight’s matchup against the Knicks is a strong one. The Knicks have given up the sixth most DK points to PGs this season and Jarrett Jack is a subpar individual defender, ranking 60th out of 98 PGs in defensive real plus-minus (DRPM). Murray will be popular in tournaments at this price point, but his recent form warrants the ownership.
Jarrett Jack (NYK): $4,600 at DEN
Jack has been hit or miss recently in DFS, but his minutes have been consistent averaging 27.8 of them over the past four games. Kristaps Porzingis is questionable to play for the Knicks tonight, but even if he suits up Jack will be unaffected as he has only seen a 0.7% usage increase in 226.0 minutes without Porzingis on the floor this season. The Nuggets are ranked 22nd in DK points allowed to PGs this season, and Jamal Murray is 82nd of 98 PGs in DRPM. Jack has 6x upside on his cheap price tag in tonight’s game regardless of Porzingis’ status.
Draymond Green (GSW): $7,500 vs. MIN
Green has been in great form over the past five games, averaging 40.9 DK points with an impressive 7.2 assists per game. The Timberwolves are a tough matchup for opposing power forwards, but they are a beatable defense overall ranking 21st in defensive efficiency rating. On top of this, Green is an atypical forward that can fill up the stat sheet without scoring and will be a tough cover for Taj Gibson. If you don’t have the salary cap to get up to Stephen Curry, Green makes for a great mid-range play that will allow you to get exposure to the Warriors in what should be a very competitive game.
Josh Richardson (MIA): $6,300 vs. SAC
Goran Dragic is expected back for the Heat tonight, but Tyler Johnson has already been ruled out. Richardson sees a 2.5% usage bump with Johnson off the court this season, and he should fly under the radar in tonight’s game against a tanking Kings team. The Kings are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency rating this season, and Josh Richardson has been solid over the past five games, averaging 30.8 DK points on 14 shot attempts per game. Richardson has a modest 18.0% usage rate this season, but a match-up against the Kings should be enough for him to return 5x to 6x on his salary.
Carmelo Anthony (OKC): $6,100 vs. WAS
The Wizards are ranked 12th in defensive efficiency rating this season, but Anthony draws an exploitable matchup in tonight’s game. Markieff Morris ranks 62nd out of 96 PFs in DRPM and will likely struggle with Anthony’s perimeter game on offense. Anthony also comes into this game in good form, averaging 34.0 DK points over the past five games. He struggled against the Nets on Tuesday night, but prior to that game Anthony has been flashing some offensive upside. He offers good value at a relatively modest price tag in tonight’s game.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): $9,200 at GSW
Since I plan on playing Curry tonight, I will be running it back with Towns on the Wolves side of the ball. Towns is coming off two down games in which he only attempted eight shots per game, but prior to that he put up 22 points in consecutive games while shooting 61.5% from the field. The Warriors are a strong defensive team, but they have been beatable at the center position, giving up the 11th most DK points to centers this season. If Jimmy Butler sits again, Towns should be the focal point of the Timberwolves offense in a game that features a high total.
Nikola Jokic (DEN): $8,900 vs. NYK
Jokic has been in phenomenal form over the past five games, averaging 47.8 DK points per game. Tonight, he gets a great home matchup against the Knicks. The Knicks have given up the 10th fewest DK points to centers this season but the stat is a bit misleading, as Enes Kanter ranks 68th out of 74 centers in DRPM this season. Jokic does a little bit of everything on the court, and he should have his way against a beatable Knicks frontcourt.