DraftKings NBA Lineup Advice: Thursday (2/1)

Indiana Pacers v Minnesota Timberwolves

It’s the first day of February and we have a five-game slate over on DraftKings tonight. James HardenGiannis Antetokounmpo, and Russell Westbrook are all in action while there are several other All-Stars playing as well. With so many great players on the board, my plan is going to be trying to fade the top superstars and building a lineup that might carry lower ownership in tournaments.

The majority of the DFS community will likely to look towards Russell Westbrook and James Harden on a five-game slate, but I am planning on spending down at guard to create a more balanced lineup. With this in mind, I have focused on identifying my two favorite plays, regardless of price, at each position that can give us an edge in tournaments on tonight’s slate.

Guards

Kyle Lowry (TOR): $7,300 at WAS

Since I plan on creating a more balanced lineup tonight, Lowry makes my short list at the point guard position. While Lowry has only averaged 34 DK points across the past two games, his price has dropped $500 since Sunday and he has a favorable match-up against the Wizards, who are without John Wall. The Wizards are middle of the pack against point guards (15th in DK points allowed) but Tomas Satoransky and Tim Frazier should struggle to contain Lowry in this game. Lowry, who has flashed 50 DK point upside on multiple occasions this season, has a strong chance of doing so again tonight.

Gary Harris (DEN): $5,800 vs. OKC

Harris has been in solid form recently, averaging 31.2 DK points over the past four games. Despite his play, Harris is priced below $6,000 for a home matchup against a Thunder team that recently lost Andre Roberson for the season. His replacement Terrance Ferguson is a major step down on the defensive end, ranking 85th out 105 SGs in defensive real plus minus (DRPM). Harris doesn’t have a necessarily high usage rate (20.4%), but he has put up at least 14 shot attempts in five of the past six games while averaging 35.1 minutes per game. His price makes him a solid play at guard tonight.

Forwards                         

Paul George (OKC): $7,500 at DEN

The Thunder head to Denver to take on the Nuggets in a game that should feature a relatively high total. Since I am planning on a Westbrook fade in tournaments, I will be pivoting to Paul George to gain exposure to the Thunder. Over the past six games, George has averaged 42.2 DK points while putting up a lofty 27.8 actual points per game, a 6.5 point increase compared to his season average. The Nuggets have been rolling out a smaller lineup at the wing positions over the past few weeks and starting Will Barton at small forward. Barton is ranked 81st out of 105 SGs in DRPM and should struggle to contain George in this matchup.

Khris Middleton (MIL): $7,100 at MIN

With Eric Bledsoe doubtful for tonight’s game, Middleton stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in his absence. In 780.3 minutes without Bledose on the floor this season, Middleton has a 30.3% usage rate which is the biggest bump on the team at +4.1%. He is also in superb form, averaging 44.9 DK points over the past five games. Middleton is likely to see a bit of Jimmy Butler‘s elite defense in this matchup, but his price tag and usage increase are too good to pass up at this price tag.

Centers

Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): $8,700 vs. MIL

Towns had a down game against the Raptors on Tuesday, but he is in an elite spot to bounce back against the Bucks tonight. The Bucks allow the eighth most DK points to the center position this season and they are ranked 26th in defensive rebounding percentage. Prior to Tuesday night’s 29.5 DK point outing on the second leg of a road back-to-back, Towns had averaged 48.4 DK points across a three-game stretch. With Towns averaging 13.3 rebounds over the past five games, this is a spot where 15-20 rebounds are well within range.

Nikola Jokic (DEN): $8,100 vs. OKC

Nikola Jokic went on a DFS tear in January and averaged 43.1 DK points in 15 games. Jokic has the rare ability to do a little bit of everything on the court as a big man and this has shown throughout his game logs over the past month. Despite the fact that the Thunder allow the fourth least DK points to centers, Steven Adams is actually an overrated defender and ranks 51st out of 74 centers in DRPM. The Nuggets have also started to roll out Mason Plumlee alongside Jokic in bigger frontcourt lineups, which would force Carmelo Anthony (80th out of 96 PFs in DRPM) to spend time on both big men on defense. Jokic should have his way against the Thunder frontcourt in tonight’s matchup and is a great option in tournaments.

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